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Two paths to $100K+ Bitcoin
Which path will it take?

On today’s livestream, Jesse laid out two paths for bitcoin to hit $100K+. We’ll go through them here.
You can always watch the full livestream here too:
Let’s get started.
High timeframes are ultra-bullish
To start, Jesse notes that the high timeframes (weekly, 2-week, monthly, etc.) are all ultra-bullish, which we noted in the newsletter, What Bitcoin’s 2-Week Chart Says.
Because it’s bullish on high timeframes, we expect that it’s more likely to end up going higher still—especially since in past cycles, every time it’s hit a previous peak, it’s gone up another 200%+.
200%+ from this peak would put bitcoin over $200K. We don’t know if it’ll hit that high, but we can chart some paths to get there.

For now, bitcoin is consolidating
Right now, bitcoin’s trying to break that 2021 peak, but it’s stalling out. It’s spent 5 weeks here so far and has had a -18% drawdown.

Bitcoin price trying to break the 2021 peak
This is similar to 2013.
In 2013, it took 13 weeks and two 33% drawdowns before Bitcoin truly moved past the previous peak and onto an all-time high.
It even broke the 2013 peak and then went back below for several more weeks.

Bitcoin trying to break the 2013 peak in 2017
Two paths to $100K+
In the livestream, Jesse lays out two paths for bitcoin to push higher.
To do that, he uses the price pattern from the 2017-2021 cycle and overlays it on the current price action.
The first scenario is similar to 2021, where bitcoin’s correction finishes soon and continues pushing higher, straight up.

Scenario 1: Bitcoin pushes straight up
In scenario 2, bitcoin has a deeper correction for a few months before pushing up further.

In the second, bitcoin consolidates before pushing higher
The Paths on the Daily Chart
Here’s what those two paths might look like on the daily chart with price holding either the $59K wick or the $50K wick.

Two paths on the daily chart
No one knows which path it’ll take for sure, but we’ll be watching for both scenarios.
Here’s Jesse’s original tweet on the subject:
Even if shorter-term downside targets get hit on #BItcoin, the higher time frames are still bullish & imo it's a buy the dip scenario until it's not.
Obviously there will be differences but there are similarities to the last cycle.
Scenario 1 aligned from first peak. 👇
— Jesse Olson (@JesseOlson)
12:17 AM • Apr 15, 2024
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Disclaimer
The contents of this newsletter are expressed in my opinion only, none of which is financial advice. Always do your own research as this information is intended for educational & entertainment purposes only.
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