The question on everyone’s mind after a big drop is:

Is the bottom in?

Will there be a v-shaped recovery? Or is there more to go?

There are a lot of influencers out there saying the dip is over—it’s time to buy. Jesse’s take is a little different.

In the Market Sniper Discord, a member asked Jesse if this was the dip to buy. Here’s what Jesse said:

What he meant by that is that he’s looking for price and RSI to start turning bullish again before he buys this dip—because price can always go lower.

Jesse tweeted that he’s open to prices going lower on bitcoin:

In our Apr 5 newsletter, What bitcoin's 2-week chart says, we noted that at previous all-time highs, bitcoin pulled back 18% in 2020 and 35% in 2017. So far, we’ve seen a 16% decline. We’ll see if there’s more to come.

Here’s the reasons for caution:

1. Bitcoin RSI broke the bottom of the channel.

In our newsletter Thursday, Bitcoin RSI: Still not out of the woods, we talked about how bitcoin’s RSI was in a channel, and we wanted to see if it’d break up or breakdown, as an indicator for where momentum was headed.

This weekend, RSI broke the bottom of the channel. Momentum is showing down at the moment.

For us to become bullish, we’d want to see RSI regain the channel and then break the trendline.

2. Bitcoin price is below the 20 and 50 day moving averages.

Last time it was below these moving averages was in January. It had to bounce off the 100DMA before moving back up.

We’ll see if the 20DMA and 50DMA become resistance again.

3. Bitcoin dominance is still quite bullish.

While bitcoin is bearish, BTC dominance remains quite bullish.

BTC dominance is a measure of what percentage of the total crypto market cap that bitcoin holds.

If bitcoin price remains bearish and BTC dominance is bullish, then it means alts are even weaker.

It seems likely that BTC dominance at least touches the .618 before retracing, if not going even higher than that.

4. Major alts have large wicks to fill on the 3D.

The drop and retrace from this weekend has left large wicks on many major alts, like $SOL.

These wicks are indicative of price imbalances. These are similar to price gaps, and price often likes to fill these imbalances with volume before resuming up.

5. The broader market is trending risk-off.

As of Friday Livestream, Jesse covered how the general market is moving toward risk-off.

S&P

After almost 22 weeks of up-only, the S&P is correcting at the 1.272 fib extension.

DXY

The dollar is showing strength, which usually indicates a risk-off move.

Gold

Gold is reaching all-time highs—often considered a flight to safety.

VIX

The VIX weekly is spiking, which is showing volatility is returning to the market.

So, is the bottom in?

Time will tell—but there’s a few reasons to exercise caution.

We’re not trying to get too bearish or too bullish—just staying neutral, seeing how the market unfolds, and trading accordingly.

Jesse’s strategy isn’t to catch bottoms either—but to find the high probability reversals.

What we can say is it’s unlikely this is the top of the crypto market either. Market tops usually end in euphoria with bitcoin dominance very low, and we’re not there yet either.

This is buy-the-dip season—and we want to buy the right dip. So now we’ll be looking for when that might be.

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Disclaimer

The contents of this newsletter are expressed in my opinion only, none of which is financial advice. Always do your own research as this information is intended for educational & entertainment purposes only.