Hey everyone, QUICK update from the indicator. Today we saw 11 Bitcoin ETF’s get approved & trading will begin tomorrow. (1/11/2024)

11 Spot Bitcoin ETFs Approved

The regulator gave the green light to the following products (and their proposed ticker symbols):

• Blackrock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT)

• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB)

• WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW)

• Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF (BTCO)

• Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB)

• VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL)

• Franklin Bitcoin ETF (EZBC)

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust (FBTC)

• Valkyrie Bitcoin Fund (BRRR)

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)

• Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI)

Bitcoin

Despite seeing 11 ETF approvals today, price didn’t really do too much. The daily candle started -4% & closed +1.25% for the day. Should we be exited? As a swing trader, definitely as there could be some wild swings in the future. Are we going to the moon when trading begins tomorrow? Probably not.

***Reminder: Typically when a new stock gets listed on the NASDAQ or any other exchange we can see price quickly pump up to the upside followed by the big players dumping their positions to lock in those gains. Will that happen before the next halving? Possibly.

Here is the link to the 22 page SEC files: https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/nysearca/2024/34-99306.pdf

Out of the 22 page filing, I thought this was interesting:

The ARK Analysis claims that price changes in its selected spot bitcoin markets and the CME bitcoin futures market are “highly correlated.” Using hourly data, the correlation results are “no less than 92%”.

So is the dog wagging the tail or is the tail wagging the dog? 🙂 

On the Bitcoin monthly chart below that I’ve been posting, I’ve added a crazy BTC path idea that shows a couple of pullbacks along the way. I’ve also added two targets that line up closely with the yellow line. I noticed Abercrombie & Fitch hit these two major target levels in 2023 after making a new all-time high. Also, NVDA’s price had hit ANF target 1 after the stock also made a new all-time high in 2023. Price consolidated for about 6 months & has now broken out to the upside.

The weekly chart has been “overbought” for 12 weeks now but can remain that way as you can see but hasn’t hit longer-term target 4 as of yet at about $48,500.

As a reminder, below are the two scenarios & few things to point out.

• Bearish divergence

• Reversal candle

• MACD bearish crossover

• Still haven’t seen a sell signal and/or a confirmed lower high

1. Price would have one last push upwards to hit the 4th target out of 4 longer-term targets mapped out at the bottom of the bear market. Then have a bigger retracement prior to the halving that would present the next buy the dip scenario.

2. We see a sell signal & price puts in a lower high, retraces to lower targets prior to the halving event, & then another buy the dip scenario prior to the halving.

Recap: Monthly chart is still bullish, weekly chart is currently ultra bullish, & the daily chart is still bullish but is showing signs of a shorter-term retracement. Possible retracement targets could be:

• Sub $38,000

• Sub $35,000

• and as low as $30,000

Obviously price could always go lower but then something would be off in my opinion and we’ll continue to take it level by level.

15 minute Bitcoin video explanation, shorter-term thoughts & longer-term potential targets.

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Disclaimer

The contents of this newsletter are expressed in my opinion only, none of which is financial advice. Always do your own research as this information is intended for educational & entertainment purposes only.

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